Thursday Morning in Doha and Tel Aviv, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani jointly confirmed that Gaza ceasefire talks will resume in the Gulf nation “in the coming days”.
This momentous diplomatic success coincides with Blinken’s 11 th regional trip since the start of the conflict, implying a reestablishment of an urgency in its resolution, consequent on the death of Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar last week.
The Latest Developments
Less than two hours ago in Doha, a joint press was conducted where it was announced that US and Israel negotiators will arrive in Qatar to meet with mediators.
Blinken on “New Options”: Bland also explained that mediators are exploring “new frameworks” to take advantage of the change in Hamas leadership: We discussed options to take advantage of this moment and next steps to advance the process, Blinken told reporters.
Doha, the Nucleus: The Qatari PM announced that “American and Israeli negotiating groups will meet in Doha” to develop a breakthrough.
The Three-Pillars Goal- The U.S. Wants to see a plan allowing Israel to pull back, preventing Hamas from reestablishing its military capability, and allowing the Palestinian people to rebuild.
Escalation Amidst Diplomacy
Although there has been mention that discussions are to resume, the reality on the ground is a different story entirely:
In the Middle East overnight into Thursday morning: 17 waves of Israeli fighter jets hit the southern suburbs of Beirut where buildings were demolished in one of the heaviest bombardment nights to have taken place in recent days. Bombardment continued on the north of Gaza Strip while the Gaza Health Ministry say that in the past 20 days more than 770 people have been killed as the Gaza blockade accelerates on Jabalia. In response, Turkey attacked Kurdish bases in Iraq and Syria in the wake of a bombing raid against the headquarters of an aircraft parts manufacturing company in Turkey.
Official Statements
There is a negotiating delegation from the United States that will be coming to Doha to meet the Israeli negotiators. We will talk about the way to a breakthrough,” said Qatari PM Al Thani.
Here is a time for us to do everything possible to bring this war to an end, to bring the captives home, to give the people of Gaza a better future,” said Antony Blinken.
Market and Geopolitical Impact
Oil Prices: Crude markets are reacting very closely to the Doha announcement.Brent Crude traded marginally softer early morning trading on the news of possible de-escalation; however gains are limited by violence in Israel-Hezbollah.
World Diplomacy: The BRICS Summit in Kazan is being held today; the participants would be aware that Vladimir Putin has issued a stark warning about the region being on the ‘verge of a total war’, and puts a global spotlight on the pressure on the Doha talks to succeed where its predecessors have failed.
Why This Matters
As the U.S. Presidential election approaches in just under two weeks, the Biden-Harris team is racing against time to achieve some sort of diplomatic victory. For our readers, the restart of negotiations in Doha is the biggest opportunity we’ve seen for a regional thaw in recent months. But the gulf between the “diplomacy talk” out of Doha and the “bunker busters” dropping on Beirut presents the biggest risk to the international security.
What to Expect Next
Israeli negotiating team is expected to arrive in Doha in next 48 to 72 hours. Blinken will continue his tour to London next to meet Arab foreign ministers in order to facilitate a “Day After” plan for Gaza administration.
