Kenya’s ninth Ebola case, a 24-year-old man already in quarantine as a close family member of the first patient, was confirmed by the Ministry of Health on Tuesday.
Every new case since the first has arisen among people already in quarantine, according to the reports we reviewed. The ministry says the virus has not spread inside quarantine facilities and that there is no evidence of transmission outside the cluster.
The man was isolated at the first sign of illness and began treatment after testing positive, Al Jazeera and The Star reported. His condition was not stated. The virus is Bundibugyo.
What the ministry said
The ministry said all nine patients belong to one cluster. Patrick Amoth, the director-general for health, said the other eight are stable and improving, The Star reported.
Amoth said there has been no spread of infection within quarantine facilities, The Star reported.
Kenya’s ninth Ebola case and the eight before it
The table draws on Al Jazeera, the Kenya News Agency, The Standard, ABC News, Dawan Africa and The Star. The details of cases 4 to 7 come from The Standard alone and are not confirmed elsewhere.
| Case | Announced | Patient | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oct. 6 | Kenyan man who had lived in the DRC for seven years | Travelled by road via Beni to Kampala on Oct. 2 and flew to Nairobi on Oct. 3. Admitted and isolated. Died on the night of Oct. 5. |
| 2 | Oct. 14 | 39-year-old man | Close relative of case 1, in quarantine when fever, fatigue and joint pain developed. Confirmed by two laboratories. |
| 3 | Oct. 16 | 65-year-old woman | Close relative of cases 1 and 2, in quarantine since Oct. 6. Fever, sore throat and malaise. Diagnosed early and given supportive care. |
| 4 to 7 | Oct. 17 | Four patients, ages not given | The Standard reported three health workers who treated the first patient and one male relative, all in quarantine. |
| 8 | Oct. 18 | 49-year-old man | ABC News described him as a patient attendant already in quarantine. The Standard quoted Amoth as saying he was “not a direct healthcare worker”. |
| 9 | Oct. 20 | 24-year-old man | Close family member of the first patient, in quarantine. Isolated at first sign of illness and began treatment after a positive test. |
What the Oct. 25 release does and does not mean
The first group of contacts, who entered quarantine on Oct. 6, can begin returning home from Oct. 25 if symptom-free, The Star reported. They face 21 days of monitoring, The Star and Al Jazeera reported. The reports do not explain how the two figures line up.
It means people who finish monitoring without symptoms are released. It does not mean the outbreak is over. Health officials have not said when monitoring ends for contacts of newer patients.
The ministry also asked communities not to stigmatise people who return home.
The pattern behind the numbers
Each of the eight later patients was a relative of the first patient or someone who cared for or attended him, which suggests officials already knew who was at risk (our inference). The ministry said the ninth man was isolated at the first sign of illness, and the third patient was diagnosed early.
That does not show the cluster has stopped growing. The ministry’s statement of no evidence outside it comes with 134 of 135 contacts traced as of Tuesday, which, by our count, leaves one of 135 contacts untraced.
One death in nine cases is a small sample. The DRC health ministry reported 9,144 confirmed cases and 4,410 deaths as of Oct. 12, ABC News reported, but nine cases is too small a number to infer anything by comparison.
What readers should do
The ministry said in a statement on Oct. 14 that Kenya has no restrictions on travel, trade or public gatherings, Dawan Africa reported. WHO advised against such restrictions on Kenya, Uganda or the DRC, the Kenya News Agency reported on Oct. 7.
People with fever, unusual tiredness, muscle or joint pain, sore throat, vomiting, diarrhoea or unexplained bleeding should seek care and can call the toll-free hotline, 719, The Star and Dawan Africa reported.
Background
Kenya notified WHO on Oct. 6 and is the fourth country with a Bundibugyo case in this epidemic, after the DRC, Uganda and France, the Kenya News Agency reported. The DRC outbreak has run since May, Al Jazeera reported. WHO’s rapid risk assessment of Aug. 20 rated the risk very high in the DRC, high for neighbouring countries and low regionally and globally. There is no licensed vaccine or specific treatment for this strain, Al Jazeera reported.
Earlier coverage of the separate dispute over a US-backed Ebola quarantine facility includes Kenya High Court halts US Ebola quarantine deal and President Ruto defends US Ebola facility in Kenya.
What happens next
Oct. 25: the first group of contacts, who entered quarantine on Oct. 6, can begin returning home if symptom-free, The Star reported. The next ministry update: the status of the one contact not yet traced and the ninth patient’s condition, which was not stated. The sources we reviewed did not give a date.
