MOGADISHU, Somalia — Tonight, as May 15 slides into May 16, Somalia hits a major crossroads. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s four-year term runs out at midnight, and nobody really knows what comes next. Opposition groups and a few federal member states have already said they’re done dealing with him.
By 8:40 p.m., Mogadishu braced itself—security everywhere. The National Salvation Alliance, which pulls together a bunch of opposition leaders, gave one last warning: at 12:01 a.m., Mohamud’s just another guy. No more power, no more authority—he can’t sign laws or command the military, at least as far as they’re concerned.
Why Today Feels Like the Edge
This whole mess stems from a fight over how elections should work. The Federal Government wants to rewrite the constitution and take more control, aiming for a clear “one-person, one-vote” system. That’s pissed off pretty much everyone else.
Puntland and Jubaland have cut official ties with Mogadishu already, accusing President Mohamud of holding onto power illegally and trying to extend his time in office.
Earlier today in Baidoa, Southwest State leaders warned Mogadishu not to mess with their regional elections. Tensions are running high.
This time, there’s no emergency fix—unlike in 2021. When dawn hits, Somalia wakes up to a power vacuum, at least for the groups refusing to recognize Mohamud.
Security Fears—and Al-Shabaab in the Shadows
People who monitor Mogadishu’s security say these political rifts are risky, maybe even dangerous.
Word is some units in the Somali National Army are split—some are backing their state governments rather than the federal one.
Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab is lurking, waiting for a chance. Intelligence reports say militants are moving around Baidoa and Gedo, maybe getting ready for something.
“These next few hours are crucial,” a security analyst said at a briefing. “If politicians don’t sort something out, Al-Shabaab will jump at the opportunity.”
