The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) issued a heavy rainfall advisory for Kenya, warning of rain above 20 mm in 24 hours from Oct. 24 to 28, with the heaviest falls expected Oct. 26 to 28.
KMD rated the severity as moderate and said the rain should ease by Oct. 30. The advisory expires at 9 a.m. EAT that day.
The warning comes in the middle of the October-December short rains, which KMD forecast in August to be above average across most of the country.
What the Kenya heavy rainfall advisory says
KMD issued the advisory at 6:47 p.m. EAT on Oct. 24, with rain starting at 6 p.m.
It expects moderate to heavy rainfall exceeding 20 mm within 24 hours from Oct. 24 to Oct. 28, with a peak between Oct. 26 and Oct. 28. Rain is expected to ease by Oct. 30.
KMD named the Coast, Northeastern and the Highlands West and East of the Rift Valley in its headline, and listed Coast, Western, Northern, Central and Eastern Kenya in the alert text.
Capital FM, reporting on the advisory, quoted KMD as saying: “Residents in all the mentioned areas should remain vigilant for potential flash floods and poor visibility.”
Which areas are named
Capital FM named parts of Nairobi, Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Kisumu, Nakuru, Kiambu, Machakos, Kajiado, Meru and Nyeri, among others. It also reported that ocean waves above 2 m were expected on Sunday, Oct. 25.
The Star reported on Tuesday that the advisory also warns of strong south to southeasterly winds above 25 knots over coastal, eastern and northern areas, and says high temperatures may persist in parts of the north.
Peter Wambugu, the Nyeri County Meteorological Services director, advised farmers to consult agricultural extension officers before planting, The Star reported.
What the 20 mm threshold means
The advisory is built around one measure: rainfall above 20 mm within 24 hours. KMD rated the severity as moderate and said residents should be alert for flash floods and poor visibility.
KMD also said flooding can occur downstream even where little rain falls, so people living along rivers can be affected by rain that fell elsewhere.
Safety guidance
KMD advises people not to cross flooded roads or swollen rivers and to stay away from drainage channels. It advises moving to safer ground if flooding occurs.
It also advises against sheltering under trees or near window grilles because of lightning. People in maritime activities are told to take care, and everyone is asked to follow official updates.
Separately, the National Transport and Safety Authority has asked for a national disaster declaration on road safety after the Kanga crash, which killed 23 people, KNA reported.
The seasonal context
KMD’s October-December outlook, released on Aug. 26, forecast above-average rainfall from the last week of September to December, intensifying gradually, Kenyans.co.ke reported. The department warned of very heavy rain that could cause floods and landslides.
The outlook said “the 2026 El Niño event continues to intensify across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific”. It forecast temperatures warmer than average, highest in coastal counties and northern Kenya, which KMD attributed to a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone.
The table shows when KMD’s outlook expects the short rains to start, by county group, according to Kenyans.co.ke. The outlook names further counties, and some Western and Rift Valley counties were expected to get rain from September.
Kenyans.co.ke reported that the outlook puts the onset in Nyeri, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi and Nairobi in the second and third weeks of October. It puts the onset in Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, Taita-Taveta and inland Tana River in weeks three and four.
| County group | Counties | Expected onset |
|---|---|---|
| Central Kenya, parts of Eastern and Nairobi | Nyeri, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi, Nairobi | Weeks 2 to 3 of October |
| Eastern, southeastern and inland Tana River | Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, Taita-Taveta, inland Tana River | Weeks 3 to 4 of October |
| Parts of Western, Rift Valley and Lake Victoria basin | Some counties, including Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Nakuru, Kisumu, Kericho, Bomet | From September |
Regions, not a county list
KMD’s advisory names regions rather than counties. The Star, in a KNA report, said 45 counties were under the advisory. Capital FM named parts of 14 counties as examples.
People in areas that are not named should still follow official updates, KMD said, because flooding can reach places downstream of the heaviest rain.
What happens next
The heaviest rain is forecast through Wednesday, Oct. 28, according to KMD. The advisory remains in force until 9 a.m. EAT on Oct. 30, when the department expects the rain to ease.
KMD’s seasonal outlook has the above-average rains continuing into December.
